Wednesday, July 21, 2010

5 RB's You Need


Some would say, "In the modern era of football, championships are purchased not earned." Eh, maybe.

I'm more inclined to think that of the fantasy realm vs. playing it out in real life. Just ask Daniel Snyder how well that has worked out for him.


What you will typically find is that most fantasy championship campaigns are dominated in one of two ways. The first is drafting steady producers that will help you finish first or second at the end of the season and help you secure the all important bye week in the playoffs. Usually this is done by drafting one or two of the top RB's available, having a solid QB and a couple of steady wide-outs who are capable of catching fire every couple of weeks.

The other way to fantasy glory is how the winner of a ton of leagues managed it last year...draft a solid team and then fall straight into a big pile of luck, by picking one of the two waiver wire wonders of off the scrap heap and riding him straight through your opponents into the fantasy sunset. Of course, I speak of waiver wire wonder numero uno, Jamal Charles and waiver wire wonder dos, Jerome Harrison.




I personally had a solid team last year, then DeAngelo Williams goes down and to my great fortune, Mr. Charles was available. Season, playoffs, championship....all mine. But do you really want to rely on pure dumb luck or would you rather be prepared and dominate the competition from draft to trophy time? Look a win is a win, but chances are, you won't get a gem like Charles that late in the season again this year. So that being said, let's look at the top five RB's who will propel you to victory.

One caveat, since I'm blogging primarily about auction leagues, I'm going to examine this from the perspective of production per dollar spent. Since Chris Johnson is the #1 back on almost every list in existence it's hard not to have him somewhere in my top 5. But he's not. Now, I'm not one to doubt Chris Johnson cause the dude just put up 2000 yards rushing. However, looking back at the past 2000 yard gainers and you'll run across words like 2000 yard curse....etc. Significant drop off in production including yardage and touchdowns, not to mention 4 of the previous 5 didn't even finish the year injury free. Curse or just overuse, I believe the numbers prove it out. Buyer beware.

#1 - Ray Rice $62 value Remember last year, when no one was sure who would get the lion's share of work in Baltimore. Yes, the Ravens were and are loaded at the RB position. But as the season approached last year, you had McGahee, Rice and McClain all vying for top spot. Sure a few of Rice's TD's were vultured by his competitors, but eventually, Rice won out and boy did he, to the tune of 1339 rushing yards, 73 receptions and 702 receiving yards. That's like having a top tier RB and middle tier WR all in one player.

#2 - Maurice Jones-Drew $59 value He's too small, he's not a workhorse back, he's not...shut up...he's the freaking man! MJD made all the naysayers eat a big fat heap of crow last year and there's seconds for all those who are still calling bluff. My man J-D will put up the same 1300-1450+ yards as 2009, and hang the same 50+ catches he did last year. He's a pin ball of a man. He bounces off would be tacklers, shreds backers like Hulkamania shirts. Don't pass on MJD, you'll regret it.

#3 - Adrian Peterson $55 value AP is #2 on most lists behind Johnson. He is a true workhorse back. Strong as an ox and capable of the homerun at any moment. However, AP only had three 100 yard games last year. He did manage nearly 1400 yards but in 3 of his final 5 games last year, he rushed for 19, 35 & 54 yards. Those are #'s that I could put up...well...maybe. Not to mention his propensity to dropping the rock (9 in 2008 & 7 in '09.) All combined, I look for AP to be a top 5 back but not #2 as everyone other list circulating the web.

#4 - Rashard Mendenhall Yes, the Steelers have become a passing team. Heck, it's become a passing league. But Mendenhall has fresh legs, only posting 242 carries last year averaging 4.6 yards per carry. With Roethlisburger out for the first 6 games of the year, look for Mendenhall to receive his fair share of the load. Mendenhall also averaged 10.4 yards per catch out of the backfield and I look for him to receive plenty of check downs as Coach Tomlin will play it safe with backup QB Byron Leftwich.

#5 - Ryan Mathews What a rookie in the top 5. I believe so. San Diego is missing 2 key components of their offense with WR Jackson and LG McNeill possibly sitting out till week 10. What's that do for Mathews you ask? OK, McNeill's absence certainly won't help but look for the Bolts to run plenty. Jackson's absence will put more focus on the running game as QB Phillips will need to dump the ball off more often. And coach Turner has already committed to running the ball, stating he expects Mathews to get up to 250 rushes and as many as 40 catches for the season. If Mathews averages 4.5 yards per carry, that adds up to about 1200 yards and an avg of 7 yards per catch would equate to nearly 300 yards. That couple with Turners propensity to rush the ball inside the 10 yard line, Mathews is almost a lock for 10+ TD's. Pretty solid for a rookie.

OK, back to Chris Johnson. Look, I didn't say, "Don't draft Chris Johnson." He'll be a solid top 10 back, maybe even top 5. But don't count on him equaling his 2009 numbers. He simply can't. I hope he reads this and proves me wrong, that would be great, but he wouldn't take the time for this blog.

Last but not least, Michael "The Burner" Turner would be in my top 5 if he had more catches, but he's simply not the receiving back that my current top 5 have shown to be and he needs to stay healthy this year for me to be comfortable drafting him so high.

OK, next post, 5 RB's to steer clear of in the 2010 Auction draft.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

RB Analysis Completed

My RB analysis in PPR Auction leagues is finalized. Just FYI, it also includes standard yahoo.com rankings for serpentine drafts.

Excel version

HTML version

If you have any questions, email me at fantasyglory@hotmail.com or comment below.

Also, my most recent mock draft. Getting better as I go along. One confession with this last draft. I set it on Auto Pick for the last four RB's, everyone was down to $1 each and I figured no big deal. Well truth is, I missed out on a back-up TE by doing so. My mistake! Oh, and notice no kicker...I actually put them on my exclude list!!! Kickers suck!!! Comments welcome.

1. Ryan Mathews (SD - RB) $49
2. DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB) $42
3. Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR) $19
4. Roddy White (Atl - WR) $22
5. Peyton Manning (Ind - QB) $20
6. Steve Smith (NYG - WR) $13
7. Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR) $11
8. Jason Witten (Dal - TE) $9
9. Mike Wallace (Pit - WR) $6
10. Green Bay (GB - DEF) $3
11. Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR) $2
12. Matt Forte (Chi - RB) $1
13. Marion Barber (Dal - RB) $1
14. Montario Hardesty (Cle - RB) $1
15. Ricky Williams (Mia - RB) $1

Friday, July 16, 2010

WR Analysis for PPR Auction Leagues

It's done. No, not my thesis...that's not as important as the 2010 WR Analysis for PPR Auction Leagues. I'll finish the thesis after week 16.

I have added a pic of the chart below and as you can see there are a ton of #'s. I didn't recreate the wheel with standard rankings. You can get that at any old run of the mill fantasy football blog. No, what you get here is a tool for auction draft geeks like me with loads of value break downs and a built in run of the mill ranking for all the serpentine drafters of the fantasy geek world.
After looking far and wide at all the draft guides available, I decided they didn't give enough info to adequately judge player value in an auction draft. For instance, Hines Ward comes about for bid and you have allocated about $10 for your next receiver. You look at my tool and see that he actually ranked 12th in fantasy points last year. His TRUE VALUE is $23.96 according the the percentage of points breakdown and he's selling at an average of $7.20. His auction price is currently $9 and you want to know if he's worth buying at the price. My tool will tell you, "YES" in fact he is worth it.
So here's the pic. You can download the full version here for the Excel version or here for the HTML version or email me for a copy at fantasyglory@hotmail.com.



I will be working on the RB, QB, TE and DEF to release within the next week or so. What about the kicker you ask....? Screw the kicker....I don't even draft one. LOL. Till next time!!!

By the way, here was my last auction draft, let me know what you think in the comment below.
1. Ryan Grant (GB - RB) $41
2. Ryan Mathews (SD - RB) $52
3. Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR) $25
4. Michael Crabtree (SF - WR) $17
5. Steve Smith (NYG - WR) $14
6. New York (NYJ - DEF) $7
7. Eli Manning (NYG - QB) $5
8. Jason Witten (Dal - TE) $8
9. Mike Wallace (Pit - WR) $4
10. Kellen Winslow (TB - TE) $2
11. Kevin Kolb (Phi - QB) $3
12. Felix Jones (Dal - RB) $12
13. Julian Edelman (NE - WR) $3
14. Wes Welker (NE - WR) $3
15. Montario Hardesty (Cle - RB) $1

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

New Rate My Team Tool by FFC

I received this email alert from one of my favorite websites www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. It is a really neat feature that will analyze your team after participating in their mock draft. I always like to get feedback on my drafts and I think this is a great tool to perfect your real draft.





Rate My Team and Mock Drafts
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010

New on the site is a cool feature tied into the mock drafts. You can now use Football Guys’ Rate My Team tool on any mock draft that you participate in.

Just enter your email address on step two of the mock draft signup page and then you’ll see a button inside your draftboard. When the draft is over, click on that button and your team will be sent to the Rate My Team tool. You’ll then get an email with a link to your automatically analyzed team. All of the league settings will be pre-populated for you. Analyzing your team will also sign you up for Football Guys’ informative daily email newsletter.

Check it out the next time you do a draft. The analysis is extremely thorough and you’ll get tips on how your roster could be improved from multiple Football Guys experts.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Better Cheat Sheets

I'm working on some new cheat sheets to analyze each position player in your draft. It is Excel based and sortable based on the stat you wish to see. This tool is different from your average draft tool found on yahoo.com or foxsports.com. It is specific to auction drafts and gives you the players average draft cost as well as return on investment along with true dollar value based on points scored in comparison to their peers.

For example: Let's say you need to draft a receiver, maybe it's your second or third receiver and you want to know who to spend the money on. You can look at the available receivers on the draft board, do a quick data sort on my cheat sheet and see that Brandon Marshall costs an average of $25 to pick up, while Steve Smith (NYG) costs an average of $13. That's great, but it also shows that the $25 you will spend on Brandon Marshal netted you 273 pts, or 17 points per game (ppg) or 10.92 points per every dollar you spent to get him, while the $13 you should spend on Steve Smith (NYG) should net you 271 points, or 16.94 ppg or 20.85 points per dollar spent. Now I'd love to have Brandon Marshall on my team but truthfully speaking, Steve Smith is the better buy for the money.


I will have each position broken down this way over the next few weeks starting with WR's and email the cheat sheets to my loyal readers upon request.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Fantasy Football is Upon Us

Hello all. This is an exciting time of year for all of us fantasy geeks. Yahoo has opened up the flood gates. It's time to light up the mock draft boards. Time to match wits against all the other draft junkies. Time to talk trash, steal picks and take names.


I have already done several mocks this season. Spent time looking at early depth charts. Even tried my hand at poking some fun at Roger Rotter on Foxsports.com. He evidently didn't appreciate me poking fun at his list of WR's because he deleted my well thought out post in which I laid out my argument for Andre Johnson being the top wide out this year over Larry Fitzgerald. Roger, I'm calling you out son!!!


I'm going to examine multiple draft angles leading up to the big day. We'll discuss PPR leagues, Flex leagues, 2 QB leagues and touchdown only leagues...etc. I'll answer any questions you may have and hopefully help make your draft day a success. Heck, I'll even throw in my recipe for draft day buffalo chicken wings and my personal choice of beverages.


First things first, here is my first mock draft results. This is from a 10 man draft, Auction Style. If you haven't drafted auction style yet. I highly recommend it. It will give you a chance to get multiple top level picks versus having to wait around in a serpentine (aka the snake) draft. Beware, you only have $200 to build your team. Yahoo Mock Draft works the best in my opinion and it's free!!!


1. DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB) $38
2. Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR) $19
3. Peyton Manning (Ind - QB) $22
4. Roddy White (Atl - WR) $22
5. Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR) $26
6. New York (NYJ - DEF) $2
7. Jermichael Finley (GB - TE) $14
8. Visanthe Shiancoe (Min - TE) $4
9. Mike Wallace (Pit - WR) $4
10. Felix Jones (Dal - RB) $1
11. LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB) $9
12. Eli Manning (NYG - QB) $4
13. Dez Bryant (Dal - WR) $4
14. Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR) $1
15. Josh Scobee (Jac - K) $1


P.S. I hated drafting a kicker. It goes against my morals.